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This is the live question that starts the workflow: Runes finds the active Mentions event with a matching Gemini buy insight before generating the trade direction.
The scheduled job pulls a live Mentions event, runs the Gemini buy insight, and stores the report that feeds the decision railroad.
Mentions market with a matching AI buy insight.
Gemini prices direction from live market context.
The response carries the JSON the app can execute.
As of August 3, 2026, Donald Trump is engaged in active, high-stakes diplomacy with Iran and regional Middle East leaders to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, making references to "Ceasefire", "Bibi / Netanyahu", and "Peace in the Middle East" highly probable. The optimal positioning is to buy YES on these underpriced diplomatic terms and his highly predictable domestic attack words ("Sleepy Joe", "Barack Hussein Obama", "Transgender"), while buying NO on low-probability distractors like "Uranium" and "Crypto / Bitcoin".
Donald Trump has entered a week dominated by critical foreign policy developments. Over the weekend of August 1–2, 2026, he called off major planned strikes on Iran to pursue an imminent deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resolve nuclear disputes. High-level negotiations are scheduled to begin on the afternoon of Monday, August 3, 2026. Following his White House meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last Tuesday, July 28, and active diplomacy regarding the de-escalation of the five-month conflict, terms like "Ceasefire", "Bibi / Netanyahu", and "Peace in the Middle East" are highly central to his current communication landscape.
Concurrently, Trump continues his regular domestic offensive. He recently seized on the Spain migrant crisis to attack the "Sleepy Joe" Biden administration, regularly denounces the JCPOA negotiated by "Barack Hussein Obama", boasts of his electoral "Landslide" victories, and maintains aggressive policies targeting "Transgender" student sports and healthcare. Because Kalshi rules count both verbal statements and written posts on Truth Social, this combined backdrop of intensive Middle East diplomacy and routine domestic attacks ensures a very high likelihood that most of his signature phrases will be used before the August 10, 2026 expiration.
| Choice | Market Ticker | Model View | Expected Outcome | Trade Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transgender | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-TRAN | High | YES | BUY YES |
| Barack Hussein Obama | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-BARA | High | YES | BUY YES |
| Landslide | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-LAND | High | YES | BUY YES |
| Sleepy Joe | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-SLEE | High | YES | BUY YES |
| Uranium | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-URAN | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Stupid Question | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-STUP | Medium | YES | BUY YES |
| TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-TDS | High | YES | BUY YES |
| Ceasefire | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-CEAS | High | YES | BUY YES |
| Peace in the Middle East | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-PEAC | Medium | YES | BUY YES |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-WHO | Medium | YES | BUY YES |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-CRYP | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-BIBI | High | YES | BUY YES |
The strongest payoff asymmetries exist in the diplomatic markets. Ceasefire (CEAS) at 48¢/49¢ and Peace in the Middle East (PEAC) at 37¢/38¢ are significantly underpriced given that Trump has just halted regional strikes specifically to pursue a ceasefire framework, which begins in earnest on August 3. Similarly, Bibi / Netanyahu (BIBI) is an excellent buy at 70¢/71¢ due to Trump's recent personal meeting with Netanyahu and active messaging about Israel's role in the peace deal.
Cheap premium can be generated by shorting Crypto / Bitcoin (CRYP) at 80¢/81¢ and Uranium (URAN) at 75¢/76¢. While Trump has been active in cryptocurrency, his speech this week is highly focused on Iran and the border, making mentions of "Crypto" unlikely. Similarly, on nuclear matters, he prefers the word "nuclear" rather than the technical term "uranium," making URAN a strong target for shorting.
The optimal strategy is an independent_multi_outcome_choice portfolio built on Trump's active geopolitical and domestic vocabulary. Trade capital should be aggressively deployed to BUY YES on underpriced diplomatic terms (CEAS, PEAC, BIBI) and established domestic insults (SLEE, BARA, TRAN, TDS). These long positions are subsidized by writing cheap BUY NO contracts on the highly improbable terms (CRYP, URAN) to maximize net portfolio return.
{
"event_info": {
"event_ticker": "KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10",
"event_title": "Will Trump say \"Golf / Golfer / Golfing\" before Aug 10, 2026?",
"event_choice_type": "independent_multi_outcome_choice",
"event_outcome": "Trump is highly likely to mention several of his signature political targets and diplomatic terms during the week of August 3 to August 10, 2026.",
"confidence_score": 88,
"trade_summary": "Buy YES on major diplomatic and domestic political keywords, and buy NO on low-probability technical terms.",
"justification": "Middle East negotiations starting August 3 elevate the probability of ceasefire and Netanyahu mentions, while constant Truth Social posts guarantee domestic keywords like Sleepy Joe."
},
"market_breakdown": {
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-TRAN": {
"market_direction": "buy_yes"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-BARA": {
"market_direction": "buy_yes"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-LAND": {
"market_direction": "buy_yes"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-SLEE": {
"market_direction": "buy_yes"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-URAN": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-STUP": {
"market_direction": "buy_yes"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-TDS": {
"market_direction": "buy_yes"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-CEAS": {
"market_direction": "buy_yes"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-PEAC": {
"market_direction": "buy_yes"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-WHO": {
"market_direction": "buy_yes"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-CRYP": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG10-BIBI": {
"market_direction": "buy_yes"
}
}
}The JSON is the bridge between the LLM and the algorithmic app: each ticker gets a deterministic direction, then the execution engine can route YES or NO trades without rereading the report.
Buy YES on major diplomatic and domestic political keywords, and buy NO on low-probability technical terms.
The report is only the first layer. Runes converts LLM analysis into deterministic instructions the algorithm can price, validate, execute, and monitor.
Gemini reviews the live event, prices, liquidity, and evidence behind the contract.
Structured output maps each ticker into a deterministic YES or NO instruction.
The algorithm enters only when direction, sizing, and risk rules align.
SYSTEM VITALS
TODAY
7 / 4
live session pulse
WEEK
967 / 202
rolling execution window
MONTH
2,595 / 493
deployed contract count
P/L Rate
win probability calibration
Avg Trade Length
short-duration contract flow
Win Rate
qualified setups closed green
Monthly Equity Change
capital efficiency vs prior month
Runes lets you move from a Kalshi event into its market children, inspect the odds and implied chances, then create the contracts you want to trade. You can build manually through the UI while Runes keeps the position, PnL, and market movement under active monitoring.
Start from a live event, review its child markets, and choose the exact contracts you want to create.
Use the UI to configure YES or NO exposure, sizing, targets, and contract-specific risk rules.
Visualize price, odds, implied probability, volume, and movement across each market child.
Track realized and unrealized PnL, define exits, and keep risk visible as each contract moves.
Compare contract behavior against event metadata, market state, and live pricing signals.
Runes keeps watching created contracts after entry, surfacing changes that matter for execution and risk.
Runes isn't just about executing trades; it's about fostering a mindful trading experience. Equip yourself with tools and resources to navigate the emotional challenges of trading, promoting resilience and clear-headed decision-making.
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Maintain accountability and track your progress through regular check-ins, facilitating reflection and continuous improvement in your trading journey.
Protect your investment and manage risk effectively by setting automated shutdown limits to prevent further losses beyond your predefined threshold.
Access a wide range of automated trading algorithms, including Mean Reversion, Momentum, Breakout, and specialized Insider Trading strategies.
Our system executes trades with unparalleled precision and speed, capitalizing on market inefficiencies instantly.
Deploy new strategies rapidly with ease of configuration, adapting to market shifts with unprecedented agility.
Monitor and act upon public disclosures from U.S. senators, identifying high-conviction trades with a proven track record.
Fine-tune your trading approach by adjusting strategy parameters to adapt to changing market conditions and personal preferences.
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Analyze and refine your trading strategies with AI-driven insights. Runes evaluates entry/exit points, performance metrics, and risk exposure.
Leverage real-time AI analysis to determine optimal buy and sell opportunities using market data, technical indicators, and sentiment analysis.
AI evaluates after-hours activity, macroeconomic conditions, and volatility trends to help traders decide whether to hold overnight or exit at market close.
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Capitalize on overextended price movements with AI-driven pullback detection and mean reversion analysis.
Runes's AI dynamically adjusts MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, and Stochastic Oscillator parameters for maximum accuracy.
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AI extracts insights from breaking news, earnings reports, and global events, ranking their market impact in real-time.
Runes analyzes earnings reports, macroeconomic events, and sector-specific developments, adjusting trading strategies in real-time.
Monitor profit/loss trends, risk-reward ratios, volatility exposure, and execution efficiency — AI helps quantify risk and refine trade sizing.
Runes detects underperforming strategies and applies AI-powered adjustments to redeem and optimize execution.
AI automates profit and loss management schedules, ensuring dynamic reallocation of capital based on evolving market conditions.
Automatically set stop-loss orders based on predefined conditions to limit potential losses in your trading strategies.
Implement trailing stop-loss functionality, automatically adjusting stop-loss levels as your strategy's profits increase.
Protect your profits with automated stop-order protection, triggering sell orders when specific profit targets are met.
Set automated take profit targets, allowing your strategies to capitalize on profit opportunities without manual intervention.
Enable set stop loss after buys configurations, automating profit-taking when specific conditions align with your strategy.
Automatically apply loss mitigation strategies to limit potential losses and safeguard your capital during market downturns.
Set automated take profit targets, allowing your strategies to capitalize on profit opportunities without manual intervention.
Implement automated redemption strategies to identify and redeem underperforming strategies, optimizing your portfolio.
Create and execute automated schedules for profit and loss management, streamlining the optimization of your trading strategies.
Identify and filter "in-play" Equities based on broad criteria and account-specific trading rules.
Retrieve personalized settings including maximum capital allocation and acceptable loss percentages per strategy.
Evaluate Equities against defined entry requirements, including technical indicators and AI-based logic.
Record all relevant parameters upon successful evaluation, initiating the new algorithmic strategy.
Adjust capital per strategy based on historical performance and overall market sentiment for optimized exposure.
Safeguard gains by automatically placing sell orders if profit retraces after reaching a predefined threshold.
Minimize losses by exiting positions below a specified loss threshold with a continued downward trend.
Monitor and sell losing strategies within a "redeemable range" to minimize overall capital loss.
Automatically sell positions when predefined profit or loss targets are met, ensuring disciplined exits.
Utilize advanced technical analysis (EMA, RSI, Pivot Point, MACD) for dynamic and timely loss exits.
Configure strategies to automatically sell at predetermined dates and times, supporting both full and partial quantities.
Receive instant alerts via Discord and other channels on strategy status, profit protection, loss reduction, and exits.
Automatically record every trade executed by Runes, ensuring a comprehensive and accurate history of all your transactions.
Access granular details for each trade, including symbols, average positions, fill prices, and execution times.
Monitor your equity and profits with crystal clarity, allowing you to understand your portfolio's performance at a glance.
Review market conditions at the exact moment of your trades, providing valuable context for learning and refinement.
Utilize advanced filters to analyze trade performance by date, strategy type, market conditions, and other key metrics.
Gain insights from automated trade data to identify successful patterns and areas for improvement.
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Runes is an automated prediction market trading platform that allows users to create and execute trading strategies using AI, algorithms, and real-time data. It simplifies trading by automating buy and sell decisions based on predefined criteria.
Absolutely! Runes is designed for traders of all experience levels. We offer user-friendly features and resources to help beginners get started while providing advanced tools for seasoned traders.
Runes supports a wide range of trading strategies, including manual and automated ones. You can set strategies based on technical indicators, price movements, and more to suit your trading style.
Setting automated buy and sell schedules is easy on Runes. Define your parameters, such as profit targets and stop-loss levels, and let the platform handle the rest.
Yes, Runes offers robust risk management features. You can set stop-loss orders, define risk tolerances, and protect your investments while trading.
Runes uses Kalshi's APIs for executing buys and sells, ensuring seamless and reliable order execution on the prediction market.
Absolutely. Runes provides real-time alerts and notifications for strategy events and important market developments, keeping you informed at all times.
Runes offers detailed performance tracking, including statistics and insights. You can analyze profit and loss, strategy efficiency, and historical data to evaluate your strategies.
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To get started, sign up for an account on Runes's platform, explore the features, and begin creating and executing your trading strategies. We also offer resources and tutorials to help you on your trading journey.
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