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This is the live question that starts the workflow: Runes finds the active Mentions event with a matching Gemini buy insight before generating the trade direction.
The scheduled job pulls a live Mentions event, runs the Gemini buy insight, and stores the report that feeds the decision railroad.
Mentions market with a matching AI buy insight.
Gemini prices direction from live market context.
The response carries the JSON the app can execute.
As of Monday, August 10, 2026, Donald Trump has already officially stated "Soleimani" during his morning Truth Social post. The best positioning is to buy YES on the "Soleimani" contract and strategically buy NO on heavily overvalued, unstated choices like "Barack Hussein Obama," "Sleepy Joe," "Transgender," and "Ballroom".
This weekly Kalshi tracking period began on Monday, August 10, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT. Almost immediately afterward, at 10:29 AM EDT, President Donald Trump published a major statement on Truth Social addressing diplomatic relations and negotiations with Iran. In this post, he explicitly demanded war reparations and referenced casualties from conflicts "as led initially by General Soleimani". Because this statement occurred within the active tracking window, the "Soleimani" (SOLE) market is guaranteed to resolve to YES.
No other listed choices have been stated by Trump since the 10:00 AM EDT Monday boundary. While Trump signed a landmark executive order on childhood vaccine schedules alongside Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Monday afternoon, his public remarks focused on "vats of vaccine" and autism, avoiding other tracked keywords like "autopen". Meanwhile, other highly-priced options like "Barack Hussein Obama" and "Sleepy Joe" were last posted on Friday, August 7, 2026, prior to the start of this weekly tracking window. While they could be repeated, their high market prices reflect prior-week activity and offer superb risk-reward profiles for shorting (buying NO).
| Choice | Market Ticker | Model View | Expected Outcome | Trade Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Soleimani" before Aug 17, 2026? | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-SOLE | High | YES | BUY YES |
| Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" before Aug 17, 2026? | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-BARA | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Will Trump say "Transgender" before Aug 17, 2026? | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-TRAN | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Will Trump say "Fraud" before Aug 17, 2026? | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-FRAU | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Will Trump say "Ballroom" before Aug 17, 2026? | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-BALL | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" before Aug 17, 2026? | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-SLEE | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Will Trump say "Melania" before Aug 17, 2026? | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-MELA | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Will Trump say "Autopen / Auto Pen" before Aug 17, 2026? | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-AUTO | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" before Aug 17, 2026? | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-CRYP | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Will Trump say "Uranium" before Aug 17, 2026? | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-URAN | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Will Trump say "Karoline / Leavitt" before Aug 17, 2026? | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-KARO | Low | NO | BUY NO |
| Will Trump say "UFO / UAP" before Aug 17, 2026? | KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-UFO | Low | NO | BUY NO |
The strongest payoff asymmetry is found in shorting the over-hedged markets. Markets like "Barack Hussein Obama" (BARA) at 95¢, "Transgender" (TRAN) at 91¢, "Fraud" (FRAU) at 90¢, and "Ballroom" (BALL) at 87¢ are priced near certainty based on historical occurrences from previous weeks. However, because the current tracking window reset on August 10, 2026, none of those terms have actually been used yet. Buying NO at under 15¢ across these contracts presents extremely high-upside multi-position opportunities.
The optimal strategy for this independent multi-outcome event is to lock in a guaranteed payout on "Soleimani" while fading the inflated, unstated choices. Capitalize on the market's failure to adjust for the August 10 window reset by buying high-yielding NO contracts on "Barack Hussein Obama," "Transgender," and "Ballroom". This balanced approach leverages definitive event facts against lazy market pricing to maximize structural yield.
{
"event_info": {
"event_ticker": "KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17",
"event_title": "Will Trump say \"Zohran / Mamdani\" before Aug 17, 2026?",
"event_choice_type": "independent_multi_outcome_choice",
"event_outcome": "Trump has already mentioned \"Soleimani\" in his Truth Social post on Monday, August 10, 2026.",
"confidence_score": 99,
"trade_summary": "Buy YES on SOLE; Buy NO on BARA, TRAN, FRAU, BALL, SLEE, MELA, AUTO, CRYP, URAN, KARO, UFO.",
"justification": "Donald Trump's Truth Social post on Monday, August 10, 2026, explicitly mentioned \"General Soleimani,\" which guarantees a YES resolution for SOLE. No other choices have been stated in the current tracking window. Given the highly asymmetric pricing, buying NO on the remaining overvalued choices offers an elite risk-reward profile."
},
"market_breakdown": {
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-SOLE": {
"market_direction": "buy_yes"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-BARA": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-TRAN": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-FRAU": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-BALL": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-SLEE": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-MELA": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-AUTO": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-CRYP": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-URAN": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-KARO": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
},
"KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG17-UFO": {
"market_direction": "buy_no"
}
}
}The JSON is the bridge between the LLM and the algorithmic app: each ticker gets a deterministic direction, then the execution engine can route YES or NO trades without rereading the report.
Buy YES on SOLE; Buy NO on BARA, TRAN, FRAU, BALL, SLEE, MELA, AUTO, CRYP, URAN, KARO, UFO.
The report is only the first layer. Runes converts LLM analysis into deterministic instructions the algorithm can price, validate, execute, and monitor.
Gemini reviews the live event, prices, liquidity, and evidence behind the contract.
Structured output maps each ticker into a deterministic YES or NO instruction.
The algorithm enters only when direction, sizing, and risk rules align.
SYSTEM VITALS
TODAY
7 / 4
live session pulse
WEEK
967 / 202
rolling execution window
MONTH
2,595 / 493
deployed contract count
P/L Rate
win probability calibration
Avg Trade Length
short-duration contract flow
Win Rate
qualified setups closed green
Monthly Equity Change
capital efficiency vs prior month
Runes lets you move from a Kalshi event into its market children, inspect the odds and implied chances, then create the contracts you want to trade. You can build manually through the UI while Runes keeps the position, PnL, and market movement under active monitoring.
Start from a live event, review its child markets, and choose the exact contracts you want to create.
Use the UI to configure YES or NO exposure, sizing, targets, and contract-specific risk rules.
Visualize price, odds, implied probability, volume, and movement across each market child.
Track realized and unrealized PnL, define exits, and keep risk visible as each contract moves.
Compare contract behavior against event metadata, market state, and live pricing signals.
Runes keeps watching created contracts after entry, surfacing changes that matter for execution and risk.
Runes isn't just about executing trades; it's about fostering a mindful trading experience. Equip yourself with tools and resources to navigate the emotional challenges of trading, promoting resilience and clear-headed decision-making.
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Maintain accountability and track your progress through regular check-ins, facilitating reflection and continuous improvement in your trading journey.
Protect your investment and manage risk effectively by setting automated shutdown limits to prevent further losses beyond your predefined threshold.
Access a wide range of automated trading algorithms, including Mean Reversion, Momentum, Breakout, and specialized Insider Trading strategies.
Our system executes trades with unparalleled precision and speed, capitalizing on market inefficiencies instantly.
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Monitor and act upon public disclosures from U.S. senators, identifying high-conviction trades with a proven track record.
Fine-tune your trading approach by adjusting strategy parameters to adapt to changing market conditions and personal preferences.
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Analyze and refine your trading strategies with AI-driven insights. Runes evaluates entry/exit points, performance metrics, and risk exposure.
Leverage real-time AI analysis to determine optimal buy and sell opportunities using market data, technical indicators, and sentiment analysis.
AI evaluates after-hours activity, macroeconomic conditions, and volatility trends to help traders decide whether to hold overnight or exit at market close.
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Capitalize on overextended price movements with AI-driven pullback detection and mean reversion analysis.
Runes's AI dynamically adjusts MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, and Stochastic Oscillator parameters for maximum accuracy.
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AI extracts insights from breaking news, earnings reports, and global events, ranking their market impact in real-time.
Runes analyzes earnings reports, macroeconomic events, and sector-specific developments, adjusting trading strategies in real-time.
Monitor profit/loss trends, risk-reward ratios, volatility exposure, and execution efficiency — AI helps quantify risk and refine trade sizing.
Runes detects underperforming strategies and applies AI-powered adjustments to redeem and optimize execution.
AI automates profit and loss management schedules, ensuring dynamic reallocation of capital based on evolving market conditions.
Automatically set stop-loss orders based on predefined conditions to limit potential losses in your trading strategies.
Implement trailing stop-loss functionality, automatically adjusting stop-loss levels as your strategy's profits increase.
Protect your profits with automated stop-order protection, triggering sell orders when specific profit targets are met.
Set automated take profit targets, allowing your strategies to capitalize on profit opportunities without manual intervention.
Enable set stop loss after buys configurations, automating profit-taking when specific conditions align with your strategy.
Automatically apply loss mitigation strategies to limit potential losses and safeguard your capital during market downturns.
Set automated take profit targets, allowing your strategies to capitalize on profit opportunities without manual intervention.
Implement automated redemption strategies to identify and redeem underperforming strategies, optimizing your portfolio.
Create and execute automated schedules for profit and loss management, streamlining the optimization of your trading strategies.
Identify and filter "in-play" Equities based on broad criteria and account-specific trading rules.
Retrieve personalized settings including maximum capital allocation and acceptable loss percentages per strategy.
Evaluate Equities against defined entry requirements, including technical indicators and AI-based logic.
Record all relevant parameters upon successful evaluation, initiating the new algorithmic strategy.
Adjust capital per strategy based on historical performance and overall market sentiment for optimized exposure.
Safeguard gains by automatically placing sell orders if profit retraces after reaching a predefined threshold.
Minimize losses by exiting positions below a specified loss threshold with a continued downward trend.
Monitor and sell losing strategies within a "redeemable range" to minimize overall capital loss.
Automatically sell positions when predefined profit or loss targets are met, ensuring disciplined exits.
Utilize advanced technical analysis (EMA, RSI, Pivot Point, MACD) for dynamic and timely loss exits.
Configure strategies to automatically sell at predetermined dates and times, supporting both full and partial quantities.
Receive instant alerts via Discord and other channels on strategy status, profit protection, loss reduction, and exits.
Automatically record every trade executed by Runes, ensuring a comprehensive and accurate history of all your transactions.
Access granular details for each trade, including symbols, average positions, fill prices, and execution times.
Monitor your equity and profits with crystal clarity, allowing you to understand your portfolio's performance at a glance.
Review market conditions at the exact moment of your trades, providing valuable context for learning and refinement.
Utilize advanced filters to analyze trade performance by date, strategy type, market conditions, and other key metrics.
Gain insights from automated trade data to identify successful patterns and areas for improvement.
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Export your trade history and performance data for external analysis or record-keeping purposes.
Runes is an automated prediction market trading platform that allows users to create and execute trading strategies using AI, algorithms, and real-time data. It simplifies trading by automating buy and sell decisions based on predefined criteria.
Absolutely! Runes is designed for traders of all experience levels. We offer user-friendly features and resources to help beginners get started while providing advanced tools for seasoned traders.
Runes supports a wide range of trading strategies, including manual and automated ones. You can set strategies based on technical indicators, price movements, and more to suit your trading style.
Setting automated buy and sell schedules is easy on Runes. Define your parameters, such as profit targets and stop-loss levels, and let the platform handle the rest.
Yes, Runes offers robust risk management features. You can set stop-loss orders, define risk tolerances, and protect your investments while trading.
Runes uses Kalshi's APIs for executing buys and sells, ensuring seamless and reliable order execution on the prediction market.
Absolutely. Runes provides real-time alerts and notifications for strategy events and important market developments, keeping you informed at all times.
Runes offers detailed performance tracking, including statistics and insights. You can analyze profit and loss, strategy efficiency, and historical data to evaluate your strategies.
Yes, we prioritize data security. Runes employs industry-standard encryption and security measures to protect your data and account information.
To get started, sign up for an account on Runes's platform, explore the features, and begin creating and executing your trading strategies. We also offer resources and tutorials to help you on your trading journey.
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